The Vigorish Beatdown Documented Subscriber Plays: Week Nine (4:15 kickoff)

A couple of easy-riding wins during the one o'clock games have put us at 2-0 already with just two games to go. The following is the four o'clock play and there is still a Sunday Night Football play left if you still want some action. Details after the side:

Atlanta @ Oakland

Actual line: +3
My systems line: EV

The Falcons very well could have beaten the Eagles outright last week had the blown punt return call been corrected. Even so, the Raiders DID beat a very solid Jets team outright two weeks ago. Tons and tons of people are pretty high on Atlanta as a team (including me actually, but my bias doesn't go into these selections so don't worry) and it almost seems like easy money when you look at it.

My system however, capped the game EXACTLY even. And that is WITH home field advantage factored in. Either the lines makers think that Atlanta is one level above the Raiders (not true according to my calculations) or they have faith that the public will bet evenly on the game. The line hasn't moved all that much all week.

Even with Darren McFadden not playing, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush should do just fine as the featured backs. The Falcons rushing defense has left much to be desired this year. Let's just say that they won't be winning any flattering awards for 2008 and leave it at that.

On the other hand, the Falcons offense shouldn't have a problem putting up points, either. The ultimate edge has to tilt slightly towards the Raiders due to home field advantage though, and the fact that they should be able to run up, around, and through the Falcons defense all game long – effectively winning the all-important time of possession battle.

The play: Oakland Raiders (+3)