The Vigorish Beatdown Documented Subscriber Plays: Week Nine (Football Night in America!)

Wow.

The Raiders are horrible.

After going an impressive two for two in the one o'clock games, we were brought back to Earth by the laws of reality when the Raiders got DESTROYED by the Falcons. They were in it, literally, for about four minutes out of the entire game.

There's just no way you can project a QB to go 6/19 for 31 yards and 1 interception. I didn't even know that was possible. The team actually had a total of 98 net offensive yards. Seriously, they didn't even get over the century mark. For the entire day. With the entire offense.

But hey, that's just how the cookie crumbles – let's get to this weeks final pick:

New England @ Indianapolis

Actual line: -6

My systems line: -3.5 / -4

It seems I'm picking against Indianapolis almost every week. First it was with the Packers, then it was last week with the Titans, and now its this week with the Patriots. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Patriots are an elite team or anything – but they have been getting better as Matt Cassel has begun to shake off some of that century long rust he's acquired since he last played in a football game.

In each of the aforementioned games I thought that was it. The public HAS to realize that Indianapolis is no where near the team they were in years past and eventually stopped betting on them. Except that they haven't. Maybe its the five gazillion commercials Peyton Manning brainwashed us with, but the public just refuses to believe that the Indianapolis Colts are a powerhouse no longer. Like with the Jaguars game, I'm not complaining, just wondering when its finally going to dawn on people. Should New England win outright like I think they will, this might be the week. At least I would hope so – this would be the second straight nationally televised game in which the Colts were beaten – so we'll have to wait and see.

As for the actual game, the Patriots are going to be rolling with Kevin Faulk and previously unknown RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis. That may not sound very impressive on your computer screen but they complimented each other well last week. With the Colts' rushing defense returning to its former murky self now that Bob Sanders isn't there to tackle everyone, expect the Patriots to run, run, run, and run some more. If they're successful, and it would be wise to think that they're going to be (c'mon, one of the nicknames for the Colts run D has to do with Swiss cheese!), than the field is going to be opened up for Matt Cassel.

Cassel didn't look very impressive the first few weeks (and with good reason) but he's come on fairly strong over the past few starts and really seems like he's picking up some of the intricacies of the game that are required in order to be a competent starting QB. He's also apparently discovered that it would behoove him to target Randy Moss as many times as possible. I believe it was put best when someone stated that Moss is, “like a cheat code.” Indeed.

On the Colts front, rumor has it that something really is still wrong with Peyton Manning's knee. Usually, in years past, Peyton would participate in a warm-up drill called the 'passing tree' which would hone his passing skills to a fined tip point before game time. Well, Chris Mortensen (breaking news of absolutely everything extraordinare) was reporting that this year Peyton has not participated in those drills. He's also kept his knee covered up at all times. It could be nothing, since Chris Mortensen would break news on the sky turning gray if he could, but it is an interesting thing to note. It would also explain a ton.

Also, nearly every running back on the Colts roster is listed as questionable. While all could definitely be active, it's never good when your entire backfield is nursing all sorts of different injuries. The only way the Colts win this game (never mind cover) is if Peyton Manning just goes OFF. He's going to have to go nuts. And he's Peyton Manning, so it can definitely happen – but even though the Colts have often had the Patriots (and Belichick) number as of late, I have a feeling that Belichick realizes the type of opportunity that is available here. The Patriots can effectively end the Colts season tonight, and do it on national television no less. It's sure to be a hard fought game on both sides, but in the end – there's just no frigging way the Patriots should be getting six points in this one.

The play: New England Patriots (+6)

EDIT TO ADD: Apparently Bob Sanders IS playing tonight. That's certainly a plus for Indianapolis, but definitely not a deal breaker. New England is still the play.