No intro necessary – there's bets to be won!
Note: The lines listed are that of the home teams.
New York (Jets) @ Buffalo
Actual line: -5
My systems line: -3 / -3.5
I would have normally sent this out earlier this week instructing all subscribers to take the Jets getting 5.5 points, which was what the line was earlier in the week. Still though, given what I capped the game at – the Jets are still the play at +5. Feel free to buy the half-point though, you just NEVER know!
Divisional rivalries are always hard-fought, rough ball games and these two will be no different. Even when their games didn't mean much the two teams would give it all they had, so it's safe to assume that this is going to be an enormously important game for both squads – both standings wise as well as mentally. The Jets are also playing for a potential shot to share first place along with the Patriots should they lose on Sunday night to the Colts.
Trent Edwards has played spectacular thus far and he will have to stay at that level to give the Bills a shot on Sunday. The Jets have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, in large part to their off-season acquisition of perrennial run-stopper (and Jon Gruden annoyer) Kris Jenkins. Marshawn Lynch will have a respectable day against them, if only because of the amount of carries he will get. In the end, the Bills will live and die on Trent Edwards impressive but inexperienced arm.
To sum it all up, five points is just too enticing to pass up, especially since my system said the Jets should only be getting about a field goal or so. This game will be hard-fought and close the entire day -- and if you do go ahead and decide to buy that half point – will almost certainly fail to be a nail-biter. A nail-biter in terms of our play, rather.
The play: New York Jets (+5)
Jacksonville @ Cincinnati
Actual line: +8
My systems line: +4.5
My system called the Cleveland play over Jacksonville last week and it again is going against the Jaguars this week. No offense to Jack Del Rio and his squad or anything...
Cincinnati is a classic case of a team that should not be judged by their record. True, not having Carson Palmer under center drastically downgrades their offense as a whole, and Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't flashed much in terms of thinking he'll be a serviceable QB by years end, but the Bengals just have too many weapons on offense and a more than capable squad on defense. Well, a more than capable passing defense at least.
A lot of very sharp people have even proclaimed this as a Cincinnati money line wager, which is all well and great, but I'm staying away from long-shots like that no matter how much of a chance they have of happening. It will be a much more relaxed, content atmosphere in my house, with my money riding on the Bengals PLUS eight points.
Maurice Jones-Drew and the beast formerly known as Fred Taylor definitely have the opportunity to run for ridiculous numbers on a Bengals rush defense that is ranked 28th in the NFL (the passing defense is ranked eighth). The fact that my line is saying that the Bengals should only be getting four and a half points is also a testament to the fact that the Jaguars may still be a bit overrated by Joe Public. I don't know what it is about the AFC South, but two of it's teams (the Jaguars and the Colts) are being consistently overrated in Vegas – thanks in large part to the public. Don't get me wrong though, I'm not complaining.
The play:
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