New York (Giants) @ Philadelphia
Actual line: -3
My line: EV
The play: New York Giants (+3)
Analysis: This is eerily similar to the Giants/Steelers game in Week Eight (which we picked correctly by the way!) in which the home team is giving points based solely on being the home team. The default margin of advantage for home teams in case you didn't know is about three points. So if you ever see a line like this in which the home team is giving a field goal, than Vegas believes that the general public thinks these two teams are exactly equal.
The difference is that I have them being exactly equal WITH Philadelphia at home, which means that the Giants are actually three points or so better on a neutral, unbiased, field. This is also a Sunday night game and arguably the best and most important one thus far this season. Because of this, they're going to be getting A LOT of bets on this game – so don't be surprised if the line gets smaller. I don't envision Philadelphia being favored by anything more than three so if anything, it might drop to 2.5, so get your bets in while the lines good. Even if it does drop to 2.5 everywhere, still take the Giants – but you might want to buy the half point so you'll push if it ends up being decided by a field goal. I would never recommend buying a FULL point, but that could also, potentially, be a smart move. I'm not suggesting that though, you'd be giving up a LOT – but if your inclined to do so, it wouldn't be that dumb of a thing to do. That's all.
Let's just ride, arguably, the hottest and most talented team in football, GETTING three points in what could likely be one of the last times they'll be getting them for the rest of the year.
Line movement: This one is still sitting at +3 nearly everywhere, but I have a feeling it won't be that high for long. GET THIS PLAY IN AS SOON AS YOU CAN! Once it drops, it's not very likely it will go back up again.
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