Note: This was written and sent out on Wednesday/Thursday. Some of the lines may have been subject to change.
Jacksonville @ Detroit
Actual line: +6.5 / +7
My line: +4
The play: Detroit (+6.5)
Analysis: Fancy seeing you here again Jacksonville! The Vigorish Beatdown system apparently has a grudge against publicly overrated teams – in particularly ones in the AFC South.
Rumor has it that recently retired Lions QB Daunte Culpepper will be the starter this week in Detroit. While that may scare some people, all signs point towards Culpepper having some success. For one, the two teams he was with since leaving Minnesota, the Miami Dolphins and the Oakland Raiders, didn't have what you could call a plethora of weapons for him to work with. In fact, he barely had any.
Two, he's been keeping himself in shape and working out for just this type of opportunity. In his letter to the league, he sounded very hungry and hopeful that he could return his reputation to its former glory. It's going to be three strikes and your out for Daunte, and he just doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who'd let himself strike out very easily.
And finally, Culpepper thrived with the big bodied, quick, possession wide receiver (see: freak) that was and still is Randy Moss. If you take a quick scan of the Detroit Lions roster, you'll see that there is a player who resembles Moss both physically AND plays like him. That players name is Calvin Johnson, and he's sure to be a favorite target for Culpepper on Sunday.
On the other side of the ball we have the Jacksonville Jaguars, who've dropped two straight incredibly disappointing losses. There's a variety of reasons that have been and are still being used as to why they're playing so poorly as compared to last year (offensive line injuries, Fred Taylor not the same anymore, etc).
What's important for us is that Jacksonville continues to be overvalued as Indianapolis has been. A lot of casual sports bettors don't get a lot of information and instead place a false ranking on a team based on how they did recently and (most importantly) how they did last year. The public is still living in 2007 when the Jacksonville Jaguars took every team seriously and they're running game benefited from an effective Fred Taylor. Neither or those seem to be the case now.
A lot of people are staying away from this one because of Culpepper, but he's one of the rare recently retired/free agent quarterbacks who will be ready to start right away. It's too bad the Lions still didn't have Roy Williams, but there are enough weapons on the offensive side of things that will allow him to keep it close – or even pull the biggest upset of the year. No need to get ahead of ourselves, let's just take the points..
Line movement: It's +6.5 at the majority of places, but it's popping up at +7 in others often. Obviously take the +7 if you can and if you do, you might want to think about buying a half-point to bypass the seven
Seattle @ Miami
Actual line: -8 / -8.5 / -9
My line: -6.5
The play: Seattle (+9)
Analysis: Since Matt Hasselbeck went down, Seattle has been treated like the plague by the majority of bettors. And with good reason (at least for a little while) – the team as a whole just wasn't very good. They have however, recently started to show some signs of life. And it all started with their backup QB Seneca Wallace.
Wallace's 2008 stat line: 484 passing yards with 4 TD's, 1 interception and a 51.8% completion percentage
He's reminded me a lot of David Garrard last year, except that Wallace is on a horrible team and has a questionable rushing attack behind him. The Seahawks have been lucky to play in an NFC West division which is still very much up for grabs. But for them to have any shot at the division OR the playoffs, they're going to have to win this game. It's that simple. And you better believe that Mike Holmgren is going to let them know that they NEED to win this game. And he's going to do it loudly.
Miami has been a pleasant surprise for the entire season and Bill Parcells and his new regime have completely turned things around. They've proved that they're a solid team and a force to be reckoned with week in and week out. However, sometimes the pubic overreacts a bit in its evaluation of teams like Miami. They are good, no doubt, but they're not good enough (yet) to warrant GIVING any team nearly ten points.
Seattle's looked very bad this year and Miami has looked very good. Combine the two, sprinkle in some public and you come up with this line. Let's take the smart side and take the Seahawks.
Line movement: This one's different all over the place, but you don't have to worry about it going below eight. At the very least, if you can only find +8, wait until just before game time and it should bump back up to at least +8.5 and even +9. But definitely take +9 if you can get it now.
St. Louis @ New York (Jets)
Actual line: -8.5 / -9
My line: -6.5
The play: St. Louis (+8.5)
Analysis: So much for the Rams after they got destroyed by the Cardinals right? Uh-uh – wrong. If it were not for a 40 yard TD return by Antrel Rolle and some conservative play calling with Stephen Jackson, the end score could have been a lot more like 24-16 instead of 34-13. But all that the average fan saw was the score, so they're under the impression that the Rams are once again a horrible football team.
The line is big in this one and it will likely get bigger, because news has begun to trickle out that RB Stephen Jackson will probably not suit up for the game. But wait! What's the New York Jets rushing defense ranked again? Fourth. They're ranked fourth in the league – so it wouldn't really have mattered if Jackson was playing anyway – this is going to be a pass happy game for the Rams.
The Jets are coming off an impressive win over the Bills (which we picked correctly by the way!) which has them deadlocked with Buffalo and New England for first place in the AFC East. They're actually even playing New England the Thursday after this game so it would be safe to assume that the Jets might already have that rivalry game on their mind.
I'm not saying the Jets will overlook the Rams, but I am saying that it's definitely possible. Let's take the Rams, the points, and the hope that we may see this one play out EXACTLY as we expect it to.
Line movement: The lines jumped from +8.5 to +9 in a lot of places. I don't think I need to tell anyone to take the +9 but this one doesn't look to be a problem – there's plenty of places offering us the Rams AND a tasty nine points.
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